2023 Red Sox Mailbag (1.0) from Fenway South!
Let me start by saying that the Boston Red Sox are undefeated in 2023! Welcome to the first Red Sox mailbag of the new season, where you simply ask questions and I answer them. As long as people ask questions, this series will continue on during the year and into the offseason. Let’s get started!
I. Sox have a surplus of talent that I have thought would’ve been traded already. Any chance of a ST trade as other clubs develop needs?
Bloom has been on record multiple times, essentially saying they are never content with their team and are always looking to make additions. I think that every good team should do this. However, the kids came into spring and are balling out.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Spring Training transaction or two, but as of now I’m content with our roster.
Dalbec would be a name to watch, as multiple teams including the Rays have expressed interest in him previously. Duran on a sell-high would be crazy to me, but he has been in trade talks for the right package.
Pivetta is looking more and more like the odd man out in the rotation if Paxton is healthy, but yet again he is our one “safe” option that gives us innings.
Unless a big name comes up in talks that will make immediate impact (top level SP, elite outfielder, etc.), I say Bloom keeps the roster as is.
Question submitted by Pete Krane
II. How excited should we be for Yoshida?
Don’t even get me started!! Since the beginning of last year (2022), I’ve been pushing hard for the Red Sox to sign Masataka Yoshida. Elite barrel control, plate discipline, and sneaky power… all for under $20m per year?? Masataka Yoshida will not just be a fan favorite here in Boston, but a multi-time all star and silver slugger award winner by the time he retires. I am yet to meet someone that’s higher on Yoshida than I am.
Question submitted by Jack Reilly Gillic
III. Possibility Valdez gets promoted over Mondesi at the big league club? Then Duran or Refsnyder?
Alex Cora stated that the Red Sox will take the 26 best guys to form their Opening Day roster. Right now, Valdez looks like one of those players. If Mondesi isn’t 100% healthy, I can absolutely see Valdez making the active roster.
Remember, Mondesi hasn’t played a game yet. It wouldn’t hurt to send him down for a rehab assignment or two if he isn’t ready on March 30th.
Rob Refsnyder got his first fully guaranteed contract this season. He will be on the roster for sure, unless he really looks lost.
I’m really big on Duran. He’s someone I want on the active roster to see how his changes will play out in the MLB, but our surplus of LHH can effect that. He, in my opinion, is part of the “26 best guys”, so if it’s up to me he would make it. Duran’s performance for Team Mexico in the WBC will be a factor as well.
Question submitted by Kyle Bowman
IV. Question marks with the rotation (and more)
Going into 2023, the Red Sox have a number of possible starting pitchers. There are question marks surrounding the rotation, specifically health, and that’s something you can’t project.
Here are the potential starting pitchers we see in 2023:
Chris Sale (L)
Corey Kluber (R)
Garrett Whitlock (R)
Brayan Bello (R)
James Paxton (L)
Kutter Crawford (R)
Josh Winckowski (R)
Bryan Mata (R)
Brandon Walter (L)
Tanner Houck (R)
Nick Pivetta (R)
Chris Murphy (L)
Looking through the names, there is a ton of talent. The youngsters, like Brandon Walter and Bryan Mata, are hoping to make an impact in 2023. I can see one or both of them contributing to the team at some point in the season.
Wincky, as much as I love him, does not have a place in the rotation. Neither does Chris Murphy for now, and he will go down to AAA.
Houck will start the year in the bullpen. His erratic command last appearance told me that he needs to ease into a role, and the pen is perfect for that.
Corey Kluber was an overlooked snag this offseason, posting a 3.57 FIP with Tampa Bay last season. Kluber doesn’t give up on ABs, which is what you want out of a starter. It’s also known that he didn’t walk a single batter in a 3-2 count last season. The KluBot will serve as a veteran leader on the field and in the clubhouse.
Nick Pivetta has battled illness for most of camp, even having to leave a throwing session early. He claims that he still hasn’t reached his peak-level performace, saying “I think I have a higher ceiling than I have right now”, to the Boston Globe’s Tara Sullivan. He is the odd-man out in the rotation.
Bullpen? He wants to start. Inactive to begin the year? Not likely. Trade? You never know…
Paxton, Whitlock, and Bello are a bit banged up, but all three should be ready for Opening Day barring setbacks. Big Maple, who went down with a leg injury today (likely a hamstring, severity TBD), looked really good on the hill.
Garrett Whitlock is still waiting for a chance to be a full-time starter. Many fans believe that he deserves it, as do I. While he was a really effective reliever, Whitlock’s stuff fits more into a mid rotation role than a 1-2 inning piggyback guy.
Chris Sale is our ace without question. With that being said, he is also the biggest question mark. Since the COVID year in 2020, Sale has thrown a combined 48.1 IP at the major league level. I really believe that Sale is going to have a bounce back year and win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, but staying healthy is key. No more riding bikes!
Kutter Crawford, who I find very underrated, serves as a depth piece. He can come in and piggyback arms such as Paxton or Bello if they can’t get past 5 or 6 innings in their start. If Kutter can command his pitches, limiting home runs and walks, he certainly will be productive.
Finally, the phenom Brayan Bello. I wrote an article here that includes his 2023 projections and a quick 2022 recap. He hasn’t been guaranteed a rotation spot from Alex Cora, but it seems like he will slot in at the big league level. Pedro Martinez talks very highly of the youngster, and even helped him develop a fifth pitch this offseason.
This would be my Opening Day rotation:
Chris Sale (L)
Corey Kluber (R)
Garrett Whitlock (R)
James Paxton (L)
Brayan Bello (R)
Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford will also be active, just in the bullpen.
Question submitted by Jack Reilly Gillic
V. Your Prediction for the [Red Sox] 2023 record?
As currently constructed, I feel like this team will perform much better than the 2022 team. Having a true closer in Kenley Jansen (who debuts tomorrow) is a fantastic addition. The Red Sox blew 28 saves last season. If they converted just a quarter of those (7), they would have made the playoffs.
Another thing to note is that the Red Sox will play less games inside the AL East. According to StatMuse, Boston was 26-50 against AL East opponents last season… the second-worst interdivison record in the MLB behind the Nationals. Let’s do some math. Losing 26 out of 76 total chances means that for every three game series, Boston essentially lost two games.
Now, for the intangibles. The clubhouse, and vibes especially, have been great. You look back at the last World Series champions and realize that they all have fun with each other. They go about their business seriously, but will find ways to do it in a fun way. The best example is that 2004 “Idiots” team or 2013 team, counted out from start and won the whole thing. This year’s team has a chip on their shoulder, and they’re looking to prove the “experts” wrong.
2023 record prediciton: 88-74
Question submitted by Jack Reilly Gillic
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DMs are always open for questions, comments, concerns, or even if you just want to talk baseball in general. I hope you all enjoy the rest of your day…. stay tuned for all the scoops! Go Red Sox!